Managing Your Mind

—————————By Wayne Vinson—From CardSharp——————————-

I was listening to the local country
station today, and they happened to play a Toby Keith song where he’s
discussing his semi-pro football career. The lyrics go

Semi-pro always means semi-paid

Which got me to thinking about the economics of athletics in comparison to poker.
Consider football – the odds of going pro there are surprisingly
dismal. Perhaps 1 in 10 high school players who want to play in college
do so. Of those who make that jump, perhaps 1 in 50 of those who want
to go on to the pros make it, That means perhaps 0.2% of those who
start down the pro football road ever see their first pay day. And a
good percentage of those never see much money in the NFL – a few years
of practice squad and league minimum is the most likely result. A few
more find some money in the Canadian or European or other smaller
leagues. But overall, not a cheery prospect.

It should be obvious why this is the case – playing football is
entertaining to do (at least most of the time), and creates little real
value. And almost anyone can do it, at least to some small extent. This
means it’s a popular career with a low barrier to entrance, and that
always drives down pay.  It’s like being in a rock band or being an
actor. All such careers have a very backloaded payout curve – the worst
90%+ get nothing or lose money, most of those who remain make a small
amount of money, and the top fraction of a percent get wealthy.
Football would follow this pattern exactly, except the NCAA prevents
colleges who would like to pay their athletes from doing so (at least
openly). If you consider comped tuition as payment, then it fits
exactly.

Contrast this with other potential pursuits. Remember that stat
about 90% of new small businesses failing in the first 5 years or
whatever? That means the other 10% don’t – those are WAY better odds
than pro football. Unemployment in the US is about 5% right now – that
means that even most people in the bottom quartile of their salaried
professions are usually employed at any given time. 20:1 odds in favor
of being employed is a hell of a lot better than 500:1 against.

Poker is a lot like football in terms of the economics, and for the
same reasons. Playing poker creates no real value. And anyone with a
buyin can do it. It shouldn’t come as a surprise then that the majority
of players loose money, about 10% turn a small profit, and the top
fraction of a percent are quite wealthy. It’s just like any other
career with no barrier to entry and no value creation. So what’s my
point here? Simple – in any career with a backloaded payout curve, only
the very luckiest and very bet get paid. If you’re a highschool
football player considering pushing for the pros, it’s only rational to
ask yourself if you’re in the best 1% – in terms of strength, speed,
agility, correct body type, work ethic, understanding of the game, etc.
If you can’t honestly answer “yes” to that question, you have no
business trying to go pro in football because someone who is in that
top 1% will come along and take your slot. You’ll only disappoint
yourself and waste years of your life. Professional poker is the same.

If you’re not in the top 1% in terms of brains, discipline, social
aptitude, ruthlessness, lack of leaks, understanding of the game and so
forth, going pro will end in disaster at worst, and treading water at
best.  Roughly 10% of the players make money, but making money isn’t
the same as being successful – you have to make enough to have a
comfortable life and still maintain your bankroll.

This is a tricky thing to evaluate – our society isn’t set up to
look for the top 1%. Schools, for example, almost always reward far
more than 1% of the class with an “A” or whatever the top possible
grade is. And outside of sales, very few professions attempt to
distinguish between the merits of their top 5-10% of performers. So
most people aren’t used to evaluating themselves or others not just for
competence, but for unusual greatness. But if you want to make an
intelligent decision about entering one of these backloaded careers,
that’s exactly what you have to do. Some factors are easier to estimate
than others. For example, an score of greater than 135 or so on a well
designed an normalized IQ test would signify top 1% intelligence. Of
course there’s no benefit to using some feal-good IQ test that gives
everyone a score over 100, and everyone who can tie their shoes a score
over 110. That’s just lying to yourself. Using an accurate value is for
your own benefit here. Some of the other traits I named are more
difficult to evaluate, but here’s one example: people with top 1%
discipline have likely never placed a bet with negative expectation in
their entire lives, at least since they learned about positive and
negative expectation bets. No craps, blackjack (unless you were a well
trained counter), roulette, sports or race book (without a well tested
known-profitable system), slots or video poker. People with a top-1%
“lack of leaks” have never touched a drug harder than alcohol, never
drink at the table, have never given a cent to a stripper or hooker,
and have never been suckered out of money by a conman or romantic
interest. You should be able to come up with “tests” for the other
attributes with a little thought.

Now of course you don’t have to be top 1% in every individual
attribute to be a top-1% player overall. A football player who’s top-1%
in terms of speed, agility, and strength for their body type each
measured individually is an enormously rare find and almost certainly
can find employment. However, you can expect that most top-1%
individuals will be at least top quartile in everything, and top-1% or
better than that in at least one thing. In other words, one bad
attribute dooms an otherwise attractive package.

The good news with poker is that being semi-pro and semi-paid is OK.
Converting a little recreation time into a little money is great when
the rent isn’t on the line. And being in the top 10% is enough to make
at least a little money. But if you’re seriously considering going pro,
you need to ask yourself if you’re really in that top 1%. If not, your
prospects as a pro are questionable at best.

这是一篇俺娘写于2008年8月的小作品，记叙了俺爸退休以来他们二人骑车锻炼的经历。文章不仅描述了他们乐观豁达的心态，可见我家乡深州市近年的发展。更为可贵的是俺娘宝刀不老，文笔细腻，表述流畅，实在难得。英语俺娘不如俺，中文我还差得远哩。

 

—————以下为引用———————

 

 

自四月六日老伴退休以来，我们便开始了骑自行车旅游锻炼。我们之所以选择这种锻炼方式，是因为它有如下好处：一，这种锻炼方式能锻炼全身各个器官，尤其是腿部的踝关节和膝盖关节；二，他可以在锻炼身体的同时饱览野外的大好风景，开阔视野。三，随便，你可以根据天气情况、气候、家务等随时选择调整出行的时间、路线。所以，四个多月以来我们坚持天天出游，从没隔断过一天。

 

刚开始的时候，正是春暖花开的美好春天，天气比较凉爽。我们每天上午8点多出发，10点多返回，路线一天一个方向，东西南北都走到了。一路走来，尽情欣赏田野的明媚春光。春回大地，万物复苏。到处柳绿花红，到处莺歌燕舞，整个大地呈现的是一片勃勃生机。麦田里碧波荡漾，宛如绿色的大海。果园里繁花似锦，杏花、桃花、理化、品过话你追我赶，竞相开放。果农们登在高凳上疏花、点花，有的果农还带着收音机，果园里不时传来悠扬的歌声和果农们的说笑声。置身果园，犹如到了人间仙境，我们经常陶醉其中，不由下车驻足享受，拍照留念。

 

有时我们到底里挖野菜，荠菜、苦菜、蒲公英、野米谷等，这些大自然赐给我们的美味既营养又环保，我们经常满载而归，回来后择好洗净，分给亲朋好友们品尝，我们一起分享这些绿色食品给我们带来的乐趣。

 

送走了温暖舒适的春天，迎来了炎炎夏日。根据天气和我们家的具体情况，我们调整了出行时间和路线，改在下午5点多出行，路线主要是向东至火车站，有时先向南至纬一路再向东，大至7点返回。这样就避开了夏天炎炎烈日的暴晒。

 

这一时段天气很热，气温基本上是34-35°室内也是30°，且潮湿郁闷，可是当我们一踏上泰山东路，情况就大不一样了。笔直的泰山东路宽广平坦，直通火车站，道两旁的草坪绿色如茵，两排整齐的法桐枝叶茂盛，挺拔的树干象两排威武的哨兵一直延伸到路的尽头。这条路面宽，共8车道，显得人车稀少。我们可以快速前进。速度一块，顿觉微风拂面，从室内带出的汗水一下子消失了，浑身倍感凉爽。我们想不到在这样闷热的天气里骑车竟有这样的感觉，于是心情也豁然开朗。

 

沿泰山西路东行，沿途风景尽收眼底。路南大部分是果树和庄稼，桃树、梨树成方成块，枝繁叶茂，修剪的整整齐齐。梨果都已套袋，早桃已经采摘。乌黑油亮的玉米甩开宽大的叶子展现出勃勃生机，正在拔着节得长，有的已吐穗。低矮的花生地一片翠绿，棵棵都开满了黄黄的小花，即将扎根结果。高粱正在晒米，他们都高昂着硕大的头，像一个个火把在燃烧。难免的路东头有两个企业，依次是：博陵制衣厂，转角是一个大型的印刷厂。路北面大部分是新建的企业。经过一篇不太好看的果树地后，依次是：嘉瑞纺织、迪尔石化、瑞丰动力缸体、康发国际贸易、捷通滤材厂，最东头是我市的大型私企东初长城木业，企业的规模宏大，效益很好，每天机器隆隆，看来发展前景不错。

 

沿泰山东路东行，我们还横穿七条南北大街，室内有永平、永安、永昌和永盛，连起来就是平安昌盛的意思。出了市区第一条是顺兴大街，南通高速大桥。第二条是顺达大街，南通高速东站出口。第三条是桃园大街，北通火车站，南通北四王村。在顺达大街的北头路西转角，是我是招商引资的重点工程，由山东鲁花集团独资承建，投资5个亿，预计年产15万吨花生油，年产值32亿元，利税3亿元。我们经常有意走这条路，亲眼目睹了这项工程开工到竣工的建设过程，自08年3月6日开工以来，工地上总是八九台吊车高速运转，运载建材的大卡车来来往往，川流不息，工程进度一天一个样，可谓日新月异。据说这些建筑队工人都是鲁花集团从山东带来的，难怪效益这样快。（博主注：为何难怪？难道山东人天生比河北人厉害？呵呵）现在展现在我们眼前是的是一座崭新的现代化大型企业，院内一栋栋产房车间交错林立，高高的烟囱直插云霄，新修的大门雄伟壮观，按计划七月底竣工八月底投产已指日可待。

 

我市的几家大型企业也都坐落在这片心形的工业园区。除前面说的几家外，还有鲁花南邻的隆邦方便面厂，桃园南大街南头的国家储备粮库，安华水泥厂等。这些企业的建立，使我们看到了我市现代工业的发展。

 

还应提及的是，丛泰山东路东头怪想桃园大街直通火车站的这段路程，是我们每天往返两次的路段，因为这段路是夏天最凉爽最舒适的地方。从东向北一拐弯，就进了一条林荫道，路两边的白杨高耸挺拔，并且每边都有几行，所以使路面的阴凉层层叠叠，遮遮掩掩，覆盖了整个路面，所以一踏上这条路，使人倍感凉爽舒适。这里还是河北农大新特优苗圃基地，在路两边的苗圃地里，有他们培养的各种花卉和小树苗，有颜色各异的越级，有油绿的冬青，有浅黄的小女真，有紫色的小柏，一方方一块块都郁郁葱葱，长势喜人。有时会看到农民把这些小苗苗除出来装车运往外地，去美化环境。风景这边独好，空气清新，凉爽宜人，有沁人肺腑的花香，经常是我们流连忘返，这是没有到过此地的人无法体会到的。

 

转眼四个多月的时间过去了，在这四个多月的骑车旅游锻炼经历中，我们看到了许多，也感受到了许多，有身体的，也有精神的。记得我们第一次跟着王老师（博主注：爸爸的老领导及同事，78岁）转一圈30里的时候，不到一半路程就累得腰酸背疼，勉强坚持下来，回到家就不想动一下了，觉得路途好远好远。而现在，我们转一圈轻松自如。这足以说明，我们的体力明显增强了。并且总在室外望远处绿色，视力也好了。最重要的还是精神的提升，走出家门，融入大自然，总有一种心旷神怡的洒脱和宁静，没有了生活的烦恼，没有了工作的压力，名利、地位、财富都不是我们追求的目标了，我们追求的目标简化了：一个中心–健康，两个基本点–锻炼和安排好生活。骑车旅游，我们感受到的那份惬意，那份恬淡，那份充实，那份满足是以前从来没有感受过的。

 

四个多月我们走下来了，我们还要继续走下去。